Gas Prices Then & Now

Core Price Analysis

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1. Side-by-Side Comparison

Grouped Bar Chart

Faded bars show 2008 prices; solid bars show 2026. Yellow labels show the dollar and percentage increase above each pair.

Key takeaway: LA was already an outlier in 2008 at $3.64 and has stretched even further from the pack, now at $5.12 while the other three cities cluster between $3.11 and $3.52.

Comparison2008 vs 20264 cities

Apr 2008
Mar 2026

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2. Dumbbell Chart

Price Range per City

Each bar connects a city's 2008 price (open circle) to its 2026 price (solid circle). The length of the bar is the absolute price increase — longer bar means a bigger jump.

Key takeaway: LA's bar is nearly twice as long as Fort Worth's, showing not just a higher absolute price but a much larger absolute dollar increase over the period.

Before/AfterAbsolute Change

$2.5$3.0$3.5$4.0$4.5$5.0$5.5

Fort Worth

$2.59$3.11+20.1%

Detroit

$2.65$3.52+32.8%

Denver

$2.60$3.40+30.8%

Los Angeles

$3.64$5.12+40.7%

Apr 2008

Mar 2026

% increase

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3. Percentage Change Ranking

Sorted Horizontal Bar

Ranks cities by how much prices increased in percentage terms. The dashed yellow line marks the approximate U.S. national average increase of ~28%.

Key takeaway: Fort Worth had the smallest percentage increase (+20%) — partly because Texas has lower regulatory costs. LA's +41% increase is the steepest of the four.

% IncreaseRankedNational Benchmark

Macro Context

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4. Crude Oil Price History (CL=F)

Area Chart with Event Annotations

The macro context behind pump prices. Crude oil has had a wild ride since 2000 — from the 2008 spike to the COVID crash to the 2022 Russia/Ukraine surge. Both gas data points are marked.

Key takeaway: In April 2008, crude was near its all-time peak at ~$100/bbl. By March 2026 it sits around $72/bbl — actually lower. The real driver of higher pump prices today is refining costs, taxes, and California's regulatory environment.

Crude OilCL=F HistoryMacro ContextEvent Annotations

2008 Peak $147

Apr 2018

COVID Crash

Russia/Ukraine

Mar 2026

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5. State Tax Burden vs. Pump Price

Scatter Plot with Trend Line

Plots each city's effective state gas tax and regulatory cost against its pump price. California's CARB blend requirement and cap-and-trade costs add roughly $0.35–$0.50/gal on top of the highest state gas tax in the nation.

Key takeaway: There is a near-perfect correlation between tax/regulatory burden and pump price across these four cities. LA's outlier status is largely a policy choice, not just a crude oil story.

State TaxesRegulationCorrelationCA Premium

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6. What Makes Up the Pump Price?

Stacked Bar: Fort Worth vs. Los Angeles

Deconstructs every dollar at the pump into five components. Both cities pay the same crude oil cost and federal tax — the gap is entirely in refining and state costs.

Key takeaway: The $2.01/gal LA premium over Fort Worth breaks down as roughly $0.20 more in refining (CARB blend), $0.05 more in distribution, and $1.48 more in state taxes and regulatory fees.

Price ComponentsTX vs CARefiningFederal Tax

Crude Oil
Refining
Distribution
State Taxes & Fees
Federal Tax

Enhanced Analysis

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8. Personal Fuel Cost Calculator New

Interactive — Your Numbers, Your Cost

Drag the sliders to match your driving habits. See exactly what you'd spend per year in each city — and how much extra you'd pay compared to Fort Worth.

Try it: A typical driver doing 15,000 miles/year at 28 MPG pays $1,149 more per year in Los Angeles than in Fort Worth.

Annual Miles Driven

15,000 mi/yr

Vehicle Fuel Economy

28 MPG

Fort Worth

$1,666

$139/month

baseline

Detroit

$1,886

$157/month

+$220/yr vs FW

Denver

$1,821

$152/month

+$155/yr vs FW

Los Angeles

$2,743

$229/month

+$1,077/yr vs FW

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8. Nominal vs. Inflation-Adjusted PricesNew

CPI-Adjusted Comparison (2026 Dollars)

The hatched grey bar shows what 2008 prices would cost in today's dollars after accounting for general inflation (CPI). The yellow label shows the real price increase above and beyond inflation.

Key takeaway: After adjusting for inflation, Fort Worth's real gas price increase is only +3.7% — barely above zero. LA's real increase is still a painful +18.5%, confirming its premium is structural, not just inflation.

CPI-AdjustedReal vs NominalInflation Context

2008 Nominal
2026 Nominal
2008 Adj (2026 $)

Fort Worth

-18.4% real

Detroit

-9.5% real

Denver

-11% real

Los Angeles

-4.3% real

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9. Gas Price Forecast: 3 Crude Oil ScenariosNew

2026–2028 Scenario Fan Chart

Projects pump prices in each city through 2028 under three crude oil trajectories: a bear case (crude falls to $55/bbl), a base case (flat at $72/bbl), and a bull case (surges to $105/bbl on a geopolitical shock).

Key takeaway: Even in the bear scenario, LA stays above $4.50/gal through 2028 because its structural cost premium is baked in regardless of crude prices. Fort Worth could drop below $2.50 in the bear case.

ForecastBear/Base/BullScenario Analysis2026–2028

Fort Worth Base $72
Detroit Base $72
Denver Base $72
Los Angeles Base $72

Bear $55

Base $72

Bull $105

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10. Consumer Impact Metrics New

Annual Cost · Income Burden · EV Charging Cost Analysis

Three charts that translate pump prices into real household impact: annual fuel spend, share of median household income, and an interactive EV cost analysis. Adjust both the EV price premium tier and the home vs. public charging mix to see exactly when an EV pays off in each city.

Key takeaway: Detroit residents face the highest income burden despite not having the highest gas prices. For EV break-even, two variables matter most: the price premium you pay upfront, and where you charge. A budget EV at $3k premium pays off in under 3 years in LA. A luxury EV at $25k premium may never pay off in Fort Worth.

Consumer ImpactIncome BurdenEV Break-Even CurvesHome vs Public ChargingAnnual Cost

Annual Fuel Cost per Driver (15,000 mi/yr at 28 MPG)

2018
2026

Gas as % of Median Household Income

2018 %
2026 %

⚠ Detroit has the highest gas burden: 4.9% of median household income

EV vs. Gas Car: 10-Year Cumulative Cost by Price Premium + Charging Mix (★ = break-even crossover)

EV Price Premium over Equivalent ICE Vehicle

e.g. Tesla Model Y vs RAV4 — EV sticker: $40,000 vs ICE: $28,000

Tax Credits & Rebates

Effective EV cost: $32,500

Sticker: $40,000− Credit: $7,500= Net: $32,500Net premium over ICE: +$4,500

IRA Clean Vehicle Credit (26 U.S.C. §30D): up to $7,500 for new EVs meeting MSRP and income limits. State/utility rebates may stack. Enter a custom amount to model any combination.

Annual Maintenance Savings (EV vs ICE)

EVs eliminate oil changes, transmission service, spark plugs, and exhaust repairs. Regenerative braking also reduces brake pad wear significantly.

AAA estimate: oil, brakes, transmission, misc (~$75/mo) — Sources: AAA, Consumer Reports, NREL

Charging Mix

🏠 80% Home⚡ 20% Public

100% Public50 / 50100% Home

Fort Worth

🏠 $0.128/kWh

⚡ $0.44/kWh

= $0.190/kWh

Detroit

🏠 $0.178/kWh

⚡ $0.46/kWh

= $0.234/kWh

Denver

🏠 $0.135/kWh

⚡ $0.45/kWh

= $0.198/kWh

Los Angeles

🏠 $0.295/kWh

⚡ $0.52/kWh

= $0.340/kWh

── dashed = gas car | solid = EV (fuel + maintenance savings) | ● = break-even crossover

Fort Worth$3.11/gal

Home

$0.128

Public

$0.44

Blended

$0.190

Annual Savings vs ICE

Fuel+$850

Maintenance+$900

Total / yr+$1,750

Break-even

2.6 yrs

net premium: $4,500

Detroit$3.52/gal

Home

$0.178

Public

$0.46

Blended

$0.234

Annual Savings vs ICE

Fuel+$881

Maintenance+$900

Total / yr+$1,781

Break-even

2.5 yrs

net premium: $4,500

Denver$3.40/gal

Home

$0.135

Public

$0.45

Blended

$0.198

Annual Savings vs ICE

Fuel+$973

Maintenance+$900

Total / yr+$1,873

Break-even

2.4 yrs

net premium: $4,500

Los Angeles$5.12/gal

Home

$0.295

Public

$0.52

Blended

$0.340

Annual Savings vs ICE

Fuel+$1,286

Maintenance+$900

Total / yr+$2,186

Break-even

2.1 yrs

net premium: $4,500

Assumptions: 15,000 mi/yr · 28 MPG (ICE) · 3.5 mi/kWh (EV) · ICE base price $28,000 · Gas prices held constant at Mar 2026 levels · Electricity rates held constant · Maintenance savings applied annually from Year 1 · Tax credit/rebate applied at purchase (Year 0) · No financing costs modeled.